The European automotive industry accounts for about 6.4% of EU GDP and 7.8% of total EU manufacturing output also providing direct work for more than 2.2 million Europeans and indirect jobs for other 10 million, both in large companies and SMEs.

Whilst a significant contributor to Europe’s economy and society, the automotive industry will continue to face major political and societal demands and economic challenges. Among them is the call for making road transport more sustainable by decarbonising it in the long term and continuously improving road safety.

Because of the current economic crisis, companies involved in the automotive business are focused today mainly on survival. As firms restructure to weather the current economic, environmental and/or energy storm, they will make a number of decisions and investments that will impact their business for decades to come.

In fact, the current trajectory of technological progress is not sufficient to address the mobility needs of tomorrow. In a business as usual setting, the demand for mobility by 2035 will simply overwhelm today's model of mobility and personal transport. Powertrain technologies can deliver about another 50% reduction in energy consumption from the levels of today's gasoline engine. While that sounds impressive, this gain will be offset by a more than doubling of the number of vehicles on the road. Some researchers forecast twice as many vehicles on the road by 2035 as today, but in fact if we stick closely to our current model of wealth and motorization (the number of vehicles per capita), population forecasts suggest that there will be 3 billion vehicles on global roads compared to 800 million or so today. If climatologists are correct and we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 2 from the levels of today, or even from those of 1990, then we must cut our energy consumption per vehicle not just by a factor of 2, but by a factor of 8[1].

A factor of 8-reduction in per-vehicle energy consumption is inconceivable if we continue on towards tomorrow in the manner of yesterday. This factor of 8 reduction can be obtained through improved fuel and powertrain efficiency (on a source-to-wheels basis), reductions in per capita distance travelled by vehicles and by addressing also those factors that impede traffic flow such as accidents, congestion and a lack of parking spaces and thereby waste energy.

As noted in a recent report from McKinsey[2], politicians and policymakers in Europe and globally are increasingly focusing on vehicle emissions in the run up to an international agreement on mitigating the effects of climate change at Copenhagen in December 2009 with an aim to stabilising atmospheric concentration of CO2 at 450 parts per million (according to International Panel on Climate Change – IPCC – calculations).

Not only the current environmental challenges and the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels, but also the and demographic changes and the urbanisation process taking place at global level require the major players in the sector, both employers and employees’ representatives, to deeply review their strategies and jointly develop a long-term vision for the sustainable mobility of people and goods.

Only anticipating changes in mobility and transportation needs the European automotive industry can lead to employment growth and an efficient reallocation of labour to relevant and competitive activities by upgrading at the same time workers skills and contribute to their long-term employability.

 

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[1] Global Insight “Car of the Future : Mobility Solutions for the 21^st Century”, 2008

In order to work towards a shared view of future mobility needs and challenges, a series of actions will be undertaken in order to ripen the debate and social dialogue and create mutual trust between partners and their members, so that can then feel the ownership of the results.

As main deliverables of this action, CLEPA and EMF will organise two large roundtable discussions/debates (around 100 participants each) that will take in April and September 2010 in Brussels and will strive to be inclusive of all relevant stakeholders in the field of mobility and future transportation modes.

Discussions will focus around possible future scenarios in order to anticipate future technologies and research efforts. A main focus will be on employment and competitiveness in their different dimensions (employment structure, future skills needs, vocational training, restructuring, etc.) and on how these variables are impacted by the following key drivers of mobility:

·           Mobility and Transport

The challenge is the high and still increasing demand for mobility and transport of people and goods, in urban and rural regions. Suggested themes:

-          Information and Communication Technologies and Intelligent Transport Systems for traffic and transport management, for the single vehicle and its route planning

-          Increased use of all modes of transports and their interfaces

-          Novel concepts for individual and collective mobility and transport

·           Energy and Environment

The principal task is to transfer from fossil energy dependency, and its environmental impact, to primary energy sources that are renewable, secure, sufficient, and environmentally compatible. Suggested themes:

-          Alternative primary energies, their related fuels and drivetrains

-          The electrification of the vehicles and the road transport system as a whole

-          Lightweight structures and new vehicle concepts for high-energy efficiency.

·           Affordability and Competitiveness

Green vehicles and green road transport are achievable only if there are competitive manufacturers and service providers that offer them at an affordable price level to the user. Suggested themes:

-                   Eco-efficient production processes

o            Availability and use of raw and rare materials

o            Efficiency and energy use in the production and manufacturing processes

o            Handling of low weight, mixed materials and alternative drivetrain

o            Flexible production and manufacturing for small series and tailored vehicles

o            Use of virtual tools and ICT from order to delivery, service and maintenances. [1]

-                   Affordability and consumer behaviour:

o            Affordability of green cars

o            Development of new finance mechanisms

The project manager, in consultation with the steering group, may decide to focus one of the roundtable discussions on the electric car as the electrification process will lead to a vast change in the structure of the sector (new players, restructuring, new technologies, new competencies, new skills, etc.) and on infrastructure (need for smart grids, recharging infrastructures, etc.).

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